Author Type

Graduate Student

Date of Award

2018

Document Type

Dissertation

Publication Status

Version of Record

Submission Date

October 2026

Thesis/Dissertation Advisor [Chair]

Sembiante, Sabrina

Abstract

Recent literature on high school graduation and drop out have shifted the focus from identifying causes of drop out to identifying students who are at risk of dropping out. The Early Warning Systems (EWS) used to identify students seek to use existing data to predict which students have a greater risk of dropping out of school so that schools can intervene early enough to reengage students. Despite widespread attention to individual indicators, there is no defined system of indicators proven to be generalizable across grade levels, specifically at the elementary grade levels. Drawing on the tenets of Bronfenbrenner’s (1979) Ecological Systems Theory, the purpose of this quantitative research study was to determine to what extent the State of Florida’s EWS model can predict on-time cohort graduation in grades 3-8. Using a retrospective longitudinal sample, this study first established that Allensworth and Easton’s (2005) grade 9 on-track indicator was predictive of dropout, finding that 92.2% of students who were on-track in grade 9 graduated on time. Using this grade 9 indicator as a proxy for graduation, this study then examined the effectiveness of the Florida EWS at predicting on-track status. Through this a priori link to graduation, this study was able to shed light on predictive indicators in the elementary and middle school years without the temporal distance between the predictor grade levels and graduation typically associated with longitudinal studies of this nature. The findings that the Florida EWS successfully predicted 71.6% of future on- and off-track status confirms its use as a predictive indicator of students at risk of not graduating. The academic, behavioral, and engagement indicators found in both Allensworth & Easton’s (2005) grade 9 on-track indicator and the Florida EWS were found to successfully capture the molar activities of students within the school ecological system and were successful at providing an indication of a student’s development in terms of being on track to graduate on time from high school.

Extent

155 p.

Comments

Includes bibliography.|Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2018.|FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection|Includes bibliography.

Identifier

FA00005958

Format

pdf

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