Date of Award
2018
Document Type
Dissertation
Publication Status
Version of Record
Submission Date
October 2026
Thesis/Dissertation Advisor [Chair]
Garcia-Feijoo, Luis
Abstract
In Essay 1, I use cross-country differences in investors’ traits — trust, patience, overconfidence, and risk tolerance — to test the underreaction, overreaction, and uncertain information theories of stock returns. I find that investors’ reactions to large daily stock price shocks vary between lower and higher levels of these traits. Specifically, investors with lower levels of trust and more patience underreact more (or overreact less) to price shocks, which aligns with the predictions of the underreaction hypothesis. Investors with higher levels of overconfidence overreact more to positive price shocks and overreact less to negative price shocks. While this finding does not conform exactly to the predictions of the overreaction hypothesis, it is consistent with more refined theories of how overconfidence affects asset prices. Investors less tolerant of risk overreact less to positive price shocks. I also find that differences in institutional characteristics affect over/underreaction. Specifically, there is less overreaction in countries with stronger investor protections and less insider trading. Additionally, the ability to sell short is associated with more overreaction to negative shocks and less overreaction to positive shocks. In Essay 2, I investigate whether publicly available information (PAI) affects over/underreaction according to predictions of several theoretical models, and then I test if differences in investors’ traits modifies the association between publicly available information and returns. After identifying and correcting for a methodological issue in some prior research, I show that in a pooled international sample of stocks, investors overreact to price shocks not accompanied by information, and also overreact (or react efficiently in some models) to information-based price shocks. I find that the effect of PAI on returns is not the same in each country, which motivates my tests on how this variability relates to differences in investor traits. My results show that investors with higher trust tend to overreact less to shocks accompanied by PAI, while investors less tolerant of risk underreact to positive price shocks. Additionally, investors with higher overconfidence and self-attribution bias overreact more to positive price shocks, but less to negative price shocks, in accordance with behavioral theories.
Extent
246 p.
Recommended Citation
Brady, Kevin P., "Essays in Return Predictability After Large Price Shocks" (2018). Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2010 - 2019. 1918.
https://digitalcommons.fau.edu/etd_general_6/1918
Identifier
FA00013153
Comments
Includes bibliography.|Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2018.|FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection|Includes bibliography.